Game 5 NBA Finals: Golden State Warriors (2-3) 106 - 105 Toronto Raptors (3-2)
The big story was how Durant was going to look. It's a lot of time away and zero actual training before a decisive game. So finally the Warriors leave out the traditional big and we get a bit of a change in matchups with Durant on Siakam, a very physical assignment. A lot of help is expected with Iguodala and Green on Lowry and Gasol, respectively. The Raptors went straight to Kawhi on KD, logical and it helps since Leonard's also hindered and it cost him some plays where he's beat by Klay.
The Warriors were pushing the pace early and most plays would consist on Steph taking some sort of initiative and the change now is one outlet spacing your floor is KD - he would hit his first 2 catch-and-shoot 3s. And the Warriors had a stronger start lifted mostly by 5-5 from deep. Continuing from the previous game, we have Klay attacking smaller guards (he's being guarded by Lowry because of the new assignment Kawhi has) and the Warriors are ready to pounce on the double it draws.
The Raptors continued their PnR game and used Gasol to exploit the smaller lineup. The Warriors still seem unable to defend these with any consistency and there was some early foul trouble as a result - Lowry just blows by Klay in the first one there. What's awesome when Lowry runs this is that you can just have Kawhi and Danny as spot up shooters in each corner, which opens up everything in the middle.
A 9-0 run for the home team with the Dubs having a sequence of multiple consecutive possessions with turnovers, some forced by Kawhi's great ability to attack passing lanes but others self made. A ton of fouls left both teams with some players to keep an eye on for the rest of the game.
Durant still finished the first quarter, as he does, but sat for a couple of minutes around the halfway point. He was always going to have mobility issues but flashes of him looking like himself were awesome and he had 11 points in his comeback quarter and GSW finished with a 6 point lead, which actually would remain the same finish of the two following quarters.
Klay Thompson continues his game 4 performance, with all kinds of tough makes.
It's very telling that Bogut is the big starting the second quarter instead of Cousins. And I won't comment on the other change being switching Jerebko for Kevin Durant. Mostly because that would end pretty quickly. It's when he steps the right leg down so you know there was no coming back from that. Cheering a guy going down is really shitty, fuck all of that. Toronto players handled it great.
I'll give all the credit to Cousins. He was an aggressive scorer after Durant left the game, propelling himself to a 7-0 run of his own, and he wasn't nearly as porous on D. Great job on the team of forcing help through quick passing and driving to open up some space for DMC to work with, and he would also do it for others. Livingston was having a great ball handling stretch. Managing the lead without Curry was now vital for the team to have any chance.
Toronto would improve with the starters back and erase the point differential. This is a nice sequence of team defense but if you fix your eyes on Gasol it's incredible. On offense, the Raptors stick to their guns - Kawhi gets a screen and attacks accordingly - while the Warriors seemed flustered but not really caused by defensive intensity. It's bizarre watching no one but Green try to get back because they're talking it out after a turnover.
I've barely addressed Curry but he had 23 at the half and did a good job finding small windows for his quick release. He looked less tired than in game 4 (after the game 3 effort) and he was also given a bit more rest than he had in those games.
The Warriors would surge in the early portion of the second half. It wasn't fueled by any strong defensive showing, though I will say Looney does a great job taking away the passing lane and maybe they should force him outside with higher PnRs. But those GSW 3s were still dropping(speaking of high PnRs, this one was at the logo).
When DMC returned so did hunting him. He never goes up because he can't recover quickly but also lacks lateral movement. It was a tough end of the quarter because the Curry-and-no-shooting lineup returned and no matter how good the passing is, it doesn't get respect. I'm shocked Nick didn't bust out the box-and-1.
Bell with Cousins to start the 4th. It was only for the 3 Kawhi-less minutes but they ended up being successful, mostly from of a couple of Cook plays. Curry and Green would check back in, prompting Nurse to end Kawhi's rest time.
The Raptors get a boost as Ibaka continues to be a beast protecting the rim and gets a boost scoring with a serious mistake by Jordan Bell, who completely forgets he's guarding him, prompting Kerr to call a timeout and take him out. Looney at this point had been ruled out and the Warriors get a Klay injury away from being bare bones game 3 style. They get the lead back with 5 minutes to go on a great Kawhi pull up 3 in transition.
And Kawhi was something else in this quarter. I can't even add much to that.
Crunch Report:
Kerr keeps Boogie and switches Iguodala to get Cook's shooting in, probably with the idea that they are allowing Iguodala to take shots but someone like Cousins is still needed for rebounding and for a paint presence. But the amount of defense you lose here is a risk. But the Warriors went on an 9-0 run and let's breakdown:
Basically the same play where Curry overhelped in the previous game, he stayed on Danny and the Warriors force the TO. And in the subsequent possession he made the crazy 3 to tie.
Smart play because Klay's on the weak side, quick passes forcing the defense to shift after collapsing on Curry and Klay makes a huge shot.
The trap on Curry that forced the backcourt violation was a pretty brilliant and unexpected detail.
Lowry attacks Boogie again for a layup and the 2-for-1 on possessions. And he's called for the moving screen on the other end! But the final possession was a perfectly executed double team by GSW. Green was outstanding here dealing with Gasol and Lowry at the same time.
So we do have a game 6 in Oracle - the last game the Warriors will have in that arena. You could see the floor much more open by having the 3 scorers on offense during the first quarter even if you can't run a ton for Durant to ISO (KD & Curry: 161 OffRTG ; Curry w/o KD: 95.2 OffRTG). The 48% v 25% 3pt shooting makes the global performance look better than it actually was (edit for clarity: and those 25% are just as freaky as the 48. One corner 3 goes in and this series is done). But the execution was mostly spotless during the closing minutes, although we saw how playing Cousins there for too long can hurt. I liked that the Warriors trusted their switching more and allowed for less open 3s from doubling Kawhi and also did a good job making sure Siakam never used his speed on fast break. He only had one transition bucket and it was that one where everyone was just talking. He also had a night where his jumpers all miss, which is a risk with him.
Other notes:
Shout out to Kevon. He's playing through a shit ton of pain and it's not affecting his willingness and engagement. It's going to suck if he's gone but whatever contract he gets, he's earned.
Kawhi had some weird turnovers. He should know about this baseline cut Danny does better than anyone.
Lowry loves this shot. It's pleasing aesthetically. But he has been playing at an absurd level these finals. The moment he stopped having to be the 2nd scorer, he could just focus on d all the little things and the right decisions. He's been cooking fools in Pick and Roll.
I think people go overboard when they talk about how JVG hates the Warriors. I'm positive Mark Jackson is incapable of being impartial though. Not an example but I had to laugh at: "Credit to Steve, in that Houston series he went with lineups I'd never have gone with" talking about offensive challenged lineups. Barnes ISO intensifies
Curry, again, hands Green an open shot. I'd understand if he was trying to help but he basically just stares at the play.
It sets a different tone when FVV begins to accumulate fouls early when defending Steph. And Curry's relocations when the play seems dead are awesome.
TOR OffRTG: 110.5 but Klay on Kawhi: 0.773 PPP (NBA.com's "iffy" matchup data).
Watching Bob Myers' conference hurt my soul. It's a blessing having him as the GM of the Warriors
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The Warriors defense - even in its best years and with a lot more emphasis on switching that they've displayed in this series - always had a fundamental principal of aggressive, yet timely, help defense and allowing bad offensive players to have to be more focal points of scoring. Draymond being an historic elite-caliber help defender is one of the things that allows the Death line up to even be a thing.
But the Raptors are drowning in at least serviceable shooters (and defenders but that's another topic) and, with the likes of Lowry and Gasol mixed with two players used to Pop's system, they're the best passing team the Warriors faced at this level. They've been able to generate so many open looks because of these qualities and a combination of the Warriors losing a lot of their defensive "crispness" over years of coasting and having a depleted roster of capable bodies to throw at Toronto players which forced them to more often resort to double teams instead of trusting switches. And this is just contextualizing, not taking away the merit of what the Raptors are doing. In fact, the great roster construction that gives them a ridiculous luxury of "role players" (which even feels like an insult here) around Kawhi to be one of the very few teams of the modern era that only wins titles with 1 "star", however they want to define that term.
The Warriors in theory, could still use their original defensive principals against any lineup with Siakam and I actually think they could contain his scoring enough (he has 15 points per game on 39.7 EFG% after the game 1 explosion), should they force him to be the offensive weapon. But this is unrealistic with the current lack of wing depth and the fact that only Draymond and Looney have shown to be consistent and reliable bigs to have switched in the perimeter. So yeah, they're being forced to pick more than one player to get looks after the ball leaves the hands of Kawhi (who's actually being relatively really well defended 1v1 if dealing with Andre/Klay. Problem is when you bring the McKinnies of the world that allow him to go to work). And betting on Danny Green going 0-4 is as a gamble as you can have. My main issue with believing the Warriors can win the remaining games is that their success seems more dependent on statistical variance than anything else
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