For a team whose spot in the current East hierarchy seems fully set - I’d say it’s a relative consensus they should find their way into in the play-in tournament - a lot of uncertainty still remains about the Washington Wizards. With Bertans now making $80 Million, how are the minutes to be divided between the many options at forward? Do we really know anyone on the closing five outside of the backcourt? What the hell does “John Wall in 2021” look like? But baring an unexpected blow up of the roster, nothing intrigues me more than the role 2nd year player Rui Hachimura will have within this squad and what developments we’ll see from him during the year.
The Japanese forward had himself a solid rookie season where even more skeptic observers like myself saw him easily make his way to proper contention for All-Rookie selections. The 2019-20 Wizards had little (if any) defensive accountability but the team went all the way towards offense [1], for which Hachimura was no small part. He finished the year as one of six rookies to cross 30 minutes per game, averaging 13.5 points and 6.1 boards - which among rookies ranks 6th and 3rd, respectively).
But it is important to explain where the aforementioned skepticism arises. Rui is a pure scorer that, as of now, lacks the proper efficiency. A lot of the focus can easily go to his 28.7% three point shooting but this took place in considerably low volume of attempts. The real concern is that, when taking 40% of your attempts from midrange (over half of those from between 14ft and the 3 point line), an overall 49.3 eFG% is simply not enough to justify that shot distribution. Washington was lacking many key pieces during the seeding games but as Hachimura upped his usage the efficiency was even worst, dropping to an abysmal 43.3% eFG and leaning even harder towards the long midrange shot [2].
There isn’t a lot of complementary skills to his offense either: He has 3.5 potential assists per game, two thirds of his shots are assisted and his main diet is out of spot ups. All combined, we are painting a picture of someone that does’t really create for others and whose main contribution to a possession comes as its finisher, doing so a below-average rate [3].
On the other end of the floor, looking at his the defensive metrics is a fire hazard and Fire Departments all over D.C are on notice. But we’re discussing a rookie in the worst defense in the league so it’s hard to point any fingers at him for being a negative contributor. He’s athletic and has a 7’2 wingspan - so he looks the part. But he lacks the positional instincts and often misses help rotations. It is also a disservice to have him as more of a big when he’s probably less easily exploited defending forwards away from the basket.
This is not meant to shovel dirt on top of a young man that has only a few months playing in the NBA. There is value in being able to get your shot out at will, which he can do with those physical tools, smooth movement and a good stroke from midrange. He’s also at his best in transition, where he can grab a board and lead the break for you in addition to being a strong finisher when he gets a running start to the rim [4]. And I value how he’s reported to have great work ethic and everyone in the coaching staff and front office seems to love him.
I fully expect to see progress in his shot from deep. He clearly isn’t conformable at that range but he’s shooting over 42% from midranges over 16ft. It isn’t a big stretch to project outside shooting in the low 30s for a hard worker like Rui. It’s about taking an extra step back and fitting against an instinct to settle for midrangers [5].
There is, in theory, a great opportunity for him in the return of John Wall because, a new and more ‘surgical’ role should boost those numbers. He was at his best running the baseline and attacking the basket and hopefully we see a lot more of it. However, having a more off-ball role compounds on the need improve his passing and be quicker making decisions on the catch.
Maybe the end game will be a role player who can come from the bench and puts up semi-efficient double-digits on a consistent basis. The organisation he represents seems to expect a lot more from him. While Washington is permeated with questions coming in to the new season, where reality ends up falling within this massive chasm of perception has more implications than most in the direction of the franchise.
In some ways, Rui Hachimura enters his second year still an incredibly raw prospect despite nearing 23 years of age. The tools are all there, now it’s about setting up the proper habits and developing decision-making.
Time will tell.
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[1] If not for the bubble, where they played without many key pieces, the Wizards were a top half offense according to cleaningtheglass.co
[2] Source: cleaningtheglass.com
[3] According to nba.com data: 0.88 Points Per Possession on spot ups (good for 32nd percentile in the league) and in cuts he had 1.18 PPP (33rd percentile). He has the size to post up smaller forwards but the efficiency was also discouraging: 0.72 PPP (15th percentile).
[4] His Rising Star highlights was him effortlessly catching lobs from Luka Doncic.
[5] Also related to some shyness in terms of taking contact against defenders off-the dribble. This is another possible point of improvement.
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